Automation

The future of work will hit vulnerable people the hardest: U of T expert

Christopher.Sorensen — Mon, 09 Mar 2020 15:11:10 +0000

The future of work will hit vulnerable people the hardest: U of T expert

Christopher.Sorensen Mon, 03/09/2020 - 11:11

Cutline

People with disabilities, youth, LGBTQ2 people, Indigenous Peoples, certain racialized minorities, immigrants and those with low socioeconomic status are among those who will face barriers to entering the workforce in the future (photo via Shutterstock)

Arif Jetha

Topic

Our Community

Alumni

Artificial Intelligence

Automation

Dalla Lana School of Public Health

A great deal of attention is being paid to the future of work and its impact on Canadians. Often missing from the discussion is the extent to which different workers will be included or excluded from the changing labour market.

The future of work is characterized by a number of rapid and large-scale changes that will affect all industries. Labour market experts point to the growing integration of digital technologies in the workplace, including the application of artificial intelligence and machine learning, automation of job tasks and the robotization of employment.

These technological drivers of change may be coupled with ecological and demographic stresses – like the climate crisis and the aging workforce – that are expected to substantially change the type and availability of jobs, working conditions and the ways work is performed.

But as we look into the Canadian labour market landscape, certain groups of workers face more challenges than the rest of the population. People living with disabilities, youth, LGBTQ2 people, Indigenous Peoples, certain racialized minorities, immigrants and those with low socioeconomic status often face complex barriers to entering the workforce.

Fewer opportunities

When employed, these groups are more likely than population averages to earn lower incomes, experience hazardous working conditions, work precariously, have limited access to employment legislation or statutory benefits and have fewer opportunities for career advancement.

Not all workers experience the benefits of technological growth.

For example, the integration of personal computers in the 1980s contributed to economic expansion and increased demand for workers with technological job skills. But it also spurred a displacement of workers in low-skilled manual and clerical jobs.

As the pace of change in the labour market quickens in the years ahead, the sustainable employment of vulnerable groups could be in greater jeopardy and inequity could widen.

Research seeking to understand the future of work is in its early stages and mainly focuses on technological trends like automation. A 2016 analysis of occupational data estimates that 42 per cent of Canadians work in jobs with a high risk of being affected by automation. The same analysis found that entry-level and low-skilled jobs – those ⁠more commonly held by vulnerable workers – are three times more likely to be affected by automation than professional and management jobs.

Racial disparity

A more recent study conducted by the U.S.-based consulting firm McKinsey & Company highlighted a potential racialized disparity that could worsen with increasing automation. The study found that African-Americans and Hispanic and Latino workers are over-represented in occupations that are expected to be displaced by automation.

One study showed young African-American men with less education are at the highest risk of displacement by automation (photo via Shutterstock)

The study also showed the intersection between race, age and education: Young African-American men with less education are at the highest risk of displacement by automation.

This is just one of a potentially growing number of examples of the impact the future of work may have on vulnerable workers.

To prepare for this expected impact, work has begun on understanding the jobs skills required in the future labour market.

Critical thinking skills

A report by the World Economic Forum indicates that by 2022 the job skills most required by employers will include not only proficiency with new technologies, but also creativity, emotional intelligence and critical thinking skills. The report also found that over half of all existing workers will require significant re-skilling and upskilling to meet the demands of the changing labour market.

However, obtaining these needed job skills may also pose a challenge for certain workers. Data indicates that some groups of workers who are considered vulnerable are more likely to enter the workforce with lower levels of education – another position of disadvantage.

They may also be working in jobs where training and job skills development are scarce. It’s unclear how differences in access to educational opportunities could perpetuate the challenges faced by vulnerable workers in the future of work.

To further our understanding of the future of work, scientists at the Institute for Work & Health, a Toronto-based not-for-profit, are leading research to examine how the changing nature of work may be experienced differently across the labour market. In particular, research is being conducted to anticipate how the different trends will affect vulnerable workers, including young adults and people living with disabilities.

Minimizing shocks and stresses

The ultimate goal of the research is to build on our current understanding of the future of work and uncover potential challenges that could emerge for different groups. Importantly, the research will inform tailored policies and programs to minimize the shocks and stresses.

Increasing numbers of policy- and industry-level initiatives are being undertaken to understand the implications of the future of work and design innovative responses to navigate the changing nature of work. An example is the pan-Canadian Future Skills Centre.

As these initiatives evolve and programs are designed, it will be important to determine how Canadians who have been considered vulnerable members of the workforce are meaningfully included.

Arif Jetha is an assistant professor (status only) at the �ؿ�ζSM’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Canada should prepare for new technology spurring job loss, says U of T innovation expert

ullahnor — Fri, 17 Mar 2017 17:26:50 +0000

Canada should prepare for new technology spurring job loss, says U of T innovation expert

ullahnor Fri, 03/17/2017 - 13:26

Cutline

Robots building cars in a car factory. Being proactive can help Canadians prepare and adapt as the advent of artificial intelligence, information technology and robotics eliminate jobs, says David Ticoll (photo by spencer cooper via Flickr)

Daviel Lazure Vieira

Author legacy

Daviel Lazure Vieira

Topic

City & Culture

Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy

Innovation Policy Lab

Automation

Labour

Economy

Subheadline

“If we do things right we will adapt faster than anyone”

The economic impact of an automated workforce will be much bigger than many observers expect, says Dave Ticoll, of the Innovation Policy Lab at the �ؿ�ζSM’s Munk School of Global Affairs.

But Canada is uniquely placed to manage structural change, says Ticoll, who recently wrote an article detailing his views on labour obsolescence for Policy Options.

“If we do things right we will adapt faster than anyone.”

With the advent of artificial intelligence, information technology and robotics, we’re experiencing a significant shift in today’s economy, says the entrepreneur. And although experts have talked about labour substitution, where machines take over human work, little is said about labour obsolescence, Ticoll says. This is when technology change produces a new business model that no longer needs or supports some jobs. The work associated with these jobs doesn’t get automated – it simply becomes unnecessary.

The changing car industry is a good example, he says. Ticoll expects many people to forego car ownership in favour of on-demand, automated transportation services. Reduced car sales mean less need for car dealers and insurance brokers. Their jobs won’t get automated, Ticoll says – they will simply go away.

The shift is occurring in many industries, he says. As more consumers bypass malls in favour of online buying, for instance, retail clerks are replaced by technology. However, the demand decreases for shopping mall employees like maintenance personnel and facility planners.

Ticoll believes we’re underestimating the scale of structural changes to come.

“Traditional jobs automation research focuses on one question: can a computer do this work?” Ticoll says. “But to forecast labour obsolescence we must assess both technology and business innovation as they play out in a specific sector.”

For the auto industry, Ticoll predicts, connected and automated vehicles will be the norm by the 2030s. According to his analysis, this change will affect jobs that currently employ 1.1 million Canadians. Of these, up to half (like truck drivers) will face direct competition from automation, while the remainder are at risk of functional obsolescence.

“We need to change the way we operate for the 21st century economy”

Many other industries will be affected by such technology and business model shifts.

“We need to change the way we operate for the 21st century economy,” he says. “For example, more people need STEM skills – science, technology, engineering, mathematics.”

Increasingly, he says, governments at all levels are taking action on this front.

Ticoll cautions that fostering STEM skills won’t be enough. Income inequality and precarious jobs are on the rise and Canada must ensure that those affected aren’t left behind. Possible solutions range from the adoption of a universal basic income, which the Ontario government is slated to pilot, to a proposal from Bill Gates to tax robots.

Despite labour challenges, Ticoll believes that Canada is uniquely placed to succeed in navigating structural change.

“Canada is a relatively small country compared with the United States, China or Europe. Our labour force is only about 18 million people. So we could potentially achieve a higher density of people with technological skills. It’s easier to train and keep occupied 18 million people than 10 or 20 times that number. If we do things right we will adapt faster than anyone.”